The Jets really gave one away last week in Minnesota, failing to give the ball one more darned time to Zonovan Knight and instead running a fade on third and goal from the 1 — not that we’re bitter about that.
Ah, the Jets, no matter how different and/or better they are, are still gonna Jet.
Alas, the squad heads up to Buffalo with a 7-5 record, still in decent shape when it comes to getting a wild card spot, but a loss here won’t exactly help matters.
Of course, this is the same Jets team that beat the Bills 20-17 a few weeks back — with Zach Wilson at quarterback — so any given Sunday and all that, but still: If anyone told you the Jets would be heading to Buffalo in a Week 14 matchup with Mike White at quarterback and Zonovan Knight at running back, you’d think the spread was going to be 20 points.
Rewatching Jets-Bills Week 9. Three initial thoughts:
1) That first drive Josh Allen INT is really, really bad.
2) Sauce and Reed switch sides much more than usual for the Jets D.
3) Bills were 8-of-13 on third down. For season, Bills are 3rd in DVOA on third, Jets D is 19th.
— Aaron Schatz 🏈 (@FO_ASchatz) December 7, 2022
Instead, the sportsbooks have installed the Jets as “only” 9.5-point underdogs, with the best value sitting at — as usual — PointsBet at -107. On the moneyline, the Jets can be had for up to +375 at PlayUp, quite the healthy bump from the +330 at DraftKings and +340 at FanDuel.
The over/under is 43.5, with Caesars at -110 the best deal on the over, and FanDuel, at -106, the best deal on the under. Going up to 44 is also an option at PointsBet at -107 on either side.
Playing the game
Looking at the action on the field, in the team’s first matchup, the Jets “held” Stefon Diggs to five catches and 93 yards on 10 targets. The Bills’ braintrust did move him around the field, placing him in the slot nearly half the time in an effort to get him away from Defensive Rookie of the Year favorite Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner (he’s -650 at Caesars, and that’s the best you’re going to do at this point).
Diggs’ receiving yards over/under is set at 79.5, with -110 on the over at bet365. Assuming the Bills do the same in an effort to get Diggs free, that number seems low.
Equally low are Garrett Wilson’s props. His yardage number is set at 61.5, with bet365 again offering the best odds at -110 on the over. He’s crushed that number in four of his last five games, and he took the Bills secondary on an eight-catch, 92-yard walk the first time they played. As for Wilson’s reception prop? Well, that’s at 5.5, with the over paying out +125 at bet365.
The Mike White-Garrett Wilson duo could be something special 💥 pic.twitter.com/CPCFFXpGF9
— PFF (@PFF) December 6, 2022
As for the backfield, props aren’t available yet, as we await Michael Carter news — though it would surprise this observer if Knight doesn’t get the lion’s share of the work after his series of impressive performances. If his rushing attempts prop comes in at 12.5 or under, or his total yardage at 75.5 or under, those would appear to be fair plays.
Looking at the Jets’ most popular quarterback since Joe Namath — at least for one more week? — White’s passing yardage prop is a relatively healthy 247.5, with bet365 again offering -110 on either side. It’s hard to say if White hitting that number would be a good sign or a bad sign about the game, so maybe it’s best to pass on this one.
In the meantime, if the Jets can somehow manage to pick up the W in Orchard Park, expect to hear plenty of J-E-T-S talk (talk! talk!) in the coming week.
Photo: Chris Pedota/NorthJersey.com/USA TODAY